RISKS AND RESOURCES ASSESSMENT IN EXPLORATION
Discipline: Geology
Level: Basic to Intermediate
Duration: 3 days
Teacher: Roger Baudino
Purpose
The “RISKS AND RESOURCES ASSESSMENT IN EXPLORATION” course consists of lectures and exercises illustrated by real cases examples to provide participants with in-depth knowledge of best practices in prospect assessment, and methods that are used for pre-drill risking and the calculation of prospective resources. It also introduces to prospect economics and performance tracking. The course is not software-specific.
Designed
Geoscientists, engineers, portfolio analysts, or anyone involved in calculations of prospective resources and risks of prospects.
You will learn
How to:
- Approach a prospect assessment in the frame of the Petroleum System Analysis Concept
- Identify the main risk(s) in a prospect assessment and the possible ways to decrease uncertainty
- Apply different methods for the determination of volumetrics and risks of exploration prospects and leads
- Obtain realistic values of the variables used in the volumetric equations
- Calculate prospect volumetrics
- Carry out reality checks
- Estimate probability of success of an exploration prospect
- Approach complex and segmented prospects
- Consider economics in prospect assessment
- Apply performance tracking techniques to improve the prospect assessment
Content
- Introduction
- The Petroleum System concept for prospect assessment
- Basic statistics
- Resources calculation methods
- Estimation of parameters and reality check
- Estimation of trap size
- Estimation of reservoir parameters
- Estimation of yield parameters
- Risking: Probability of Success estimation
- Segmented prospects
- Complex prospects
- Prospect economics
- Performance tracking
- Uncertainty and Bias
- Real case examples
Software applications:
- Microsoft Suite
Bibliography:
- Bailey, W., Couët, B., Lamb, F., Simpson, G. and Rose, P., 2000. Taking a calculated risk. Oilfield Review, autumn 2000, 20-35.
- Milkov, A., 2015. Risk tables for less biased and more consistent estimation of probability of geological success (PoS) for segments with conventional oil and gas prospective resources. Earth-Science Reviews, 150, 453-476.
- Murtha, J., 2001. A guide to risk analysis. In: Risk analysis for the oil industry. Supplement to Hart’s E&P.
- Otis, R.M. and Schneidermann, N., 1997. A process for evaluating exploration prospects. AAPG Bulletin, 81 (7), 1087-1109.
- Rose, P.R., 2001. Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures. AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, 12.
- Rudolph, K.W. and Goulding, F.J., 2017. Benchmarking exploration predictions and performance using 20+ yr of drilling results: One company’s experience. AAPG Bulletin, 101 (2), 161-176.
- Singh, V., Izaguirre, E., Yemez, I. and Stigliano, H., 2016. Establishing Minimum Economic Field Size and analysing its role in exploration project risks assessment: three examples. Search and Discovery, Article #41827.
