RISKS AND RESOURCES ASSESSMENT IN EXPLORATION

RISKS AND RESOURCES ASSESSMENT IN EXPLORATION

Discipline:     Geology

Level:            Basic to Intermediate

Duration:      3 days

Teacher:        Roger Baudino

Purpose

The “RISKS AND RESOURCES ASSESSMENT IN EXPLORATION” course consists of lectures and exercises illustrated by real cases examples to provide participants with in-depth knowledge of best practices in prospect assessment, and methods that are used for pre-drill risking and the calculation of prospective resources. It also introduces to prospect economics and performance tracking. The course is not software-specific.

Designed

Geoscientists, engineers, portfolio analysts, or anyone involved in calculations of prospective resources and risks of prospects.

You will learn

How to:

  • Approach a prospect assessment in the frame of the Petroleum System Analysis Concept
  • Identify the main risk(s) in a prospect assessment and the possible ways to decrease uncertainty
  • Apply different methods for the determination of volumetrics and risks of exploration prospects and leads
  • Obtain realistic values of the variables used in the volumetric equations
  • Calculate prospect volumetrics
  • Carry out reality checks
  • Estimate probability of success of an exploration prospect
  • Approach complex and segmented prospects
  • Consider economics in prospect assessment
  • Apply performance tracking techniques to improve the prospect assessment

Content

  1. Introduction
  2. The Petroleum System concept for prospect assessment
  3. Basic statistics
  4. Resources calculation methods
  5. Estimation of parameters and reality check
  6. Estimation of trap size
  7. Estimation of reservoir parameters
  8. Estimation of yield parameters
  9. Risking: Probability of Success estimation
  10. Segmented prospects
  11. Complex prospects
  12. Prospect economics
  13. Performance tracking
  14. Uncertainty and Bias
  15.  Real case examples

Software applications:

  • Microsoft Suite

Bibliography:

  • Bailey, W., Couët, B., Lamb, F., Simpson, G. and Rose, P., 2000. Taking a calculated risk. Oilfield Review, autumn 2000, 20-35.
  • Milkov, A., 2015. Risk tables for less biased and more consistent estimation of probability of geological success (PoS) for segments with conventional oil and gas prospective resources. Earth-Science Reviews, 150, 453-476.
  • Murtha, J., 2001. A guide to risk analysis. In: Risk analysis for the oil industry. Supplement to Hart’s E&P.
  • Otis, R.M. and Schneidermann, N., 1997. A process for evaluating exploration prospects. AAPG Bulletin, 81 (7), 1087-1109.
  • Rose, P.R., 2001. Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures. AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, 12.
  • Rudolph, K.W. and Goulding, F.J., 2017. Benchmarking exploration predictions and performance using 20+ yr of drilling results: One company’s experience. AAPG Bulletin, 101 (2), 161-176.
  • Singh, V., Izaguirre, E., Yemez, I. and Stigliano, H., 2016. Establishing Minimum Economic Field Size and analysing its role in exploration project risks assessment: three examples. Search and Discovery, Article #41827.

Discipline:     Geology

Level:            Basic to Intermediate

Duration:      3 days

Teacher:        Roger Baudino

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